Factcheck: Theresa May’s Brexit deal is bad for Scotland and the UK

by Olaf Stando
Posted on
5 years ago
8 min read

Theresa May has tried to deny that Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom would worse off under her Brexit deal. But when faced with the facts, that claim simply doesn’t stack up.

Here’s the facts:

1) UK government’s own analysis confirms Brexit would cause GDP slump

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, admitted that the UK would be worse off under any form of Brexit.

Speaking on Radio 4’s Today, he said: “If you look at this purely from an economic point of view, yes, there will be a cost to leaving the European Union, because there will be impediments to our trade”.

Brexit, under Theresa May’s deal, could result in a 3.9% cut to the UK’s GDP over 15 years, when compared to remaining in the European Union.

Ian Blackford exposed these damaging impacts at PMQs, while Theresa May was shaking her head in denial of her own government’s figures.

2) The deal would heavily damage Scotland’s economy and communities

Scottish Government analysis shows that Theresa May’s deal could leave each person in Scotland £1,600 worse, off as compared to remaining in the EU.

The deal would also slash our hard-won rights, such as the freedom of movement, robbing us of the opportunities to live, work and study across the European Union. The Prime Minister’s reckless policy on migration will lead to dire consequences for our NHS; with statistics showing that in the past year alone, almost 2,500 experienced EU nurses and midwives have left the UK.

And there’s more: a special deal proposed for Northern Ireland puts Scotland at a serious competitive disadvantage, hurting Scottish exporters and curbing investment.

Theresa May’s deal knowingly damages people’s livelihoods while the SNP has proposed as serious and workable solution to keep the whole of UK in the Single Market and Customs Union. Yet Theresa May was driven towards her disastrous deal in an attempt to keep the hard-right Brexiteers on board.


3) No deal would be the most disastrous outcome: we will not allow it.

The UK government’s own report shows that the worst-case no deal scenario would slash the UK’s GDP by 10.7% in 15 years. Theresa May’s deal would not stop the prospect of a no deal Brexit, only put that prospect on hold.

A no-deal would be a calamity for Scotland: it would result in a loss of 80,000 jobs, lead to problems in the supply of medicines, and create more red tape and bureaucracy for businesses.

Theresa May is trying to frame her Brexit proposals as a straight choice between her deal and no deal – the frying pan or the fire – but even her own cabinet ministers have suggested that Parliament would block a no deal.

Jacob Rees-Mogg and other fanatical Brexiteers shout “no deal, no problem”, because it’s not them who would suffer. Millions of working families and our poorest communities would be worst hit, and we will not allow that.

4) Theresa May’s ‘my way or the highway’ is a false premise – there are clear alternatives.

Scotland didn’t vote for Brexit and we deserve better than Theresa May’s paltry deal.

The 565-page Brexit agreement contains dozens of references to Gibraltar, Northern Ireland, and even the British Antarctic Territory, but not a single mention of Scotland. Theresa May’s deal has simply push Scotland’s interest to the sidelines and treated Scotland’s parliament with nothing but contempt.

The SNP MPs in Westminster will vote against Theresa May’s Brexit deal and continue to make a strong case for a second EU referendum with the option to Remain, to protect Scotland’s place in Europe.

This deal is unacceptable, and we will lead the fight to ensure that Scotland can flourish by choosing another way forward.