You’ll have had your 280 fish suppers & 636 cappuccinos
by Back in June 2014 the Westminster Treasury rolled out a breathless manifesto entitled ‘12 things that £1,400 UK Dividend could buy‘, claiming that staying with Westminster was like winning a golden ticket. Every single Scot, they swore, would be £1,400 better off every year.
Fast forward to today, and that supposed dividend has melted faster than a cornetto on an Ibiza driveway in August. The cost-of-living is far worse than it was twelve years ago.
The economic reality is now stark – that grand pledge has gone the way of ‘Z-Cars’, Crossroads’ and ‘Balamory’, leaving households grappling with soaring bills, squeezed budgets, and a Westminster-led economy that feels like trying to bail out a mini dinghy with a colander.
So let us pull back the curtain and examine what has happened those emblematic items, contrasting what providers were selling them for – cost – against what consumers actually felt they could afford – spend.
To understand the wreckage, we first need to look at the economic weather and, according to the Bank of England inflation calculator, cumulative inflation sits at roughly 44% between 2014 and late 2026.
Compare that to our nearest neighbour, Ireland – a nation with a population comparable to Scotland’s – where inflation has hovered around 29% over a similar stretch. Westminster’s economic stewardship has seen the cost-of-living inflate like a blowfish on helium.
The Treasury’s 2014 list mixed hard commercial costs with personal spends – the former showing what businesses demand, the latter revealing what families think they can afford:
1. A 10-day holiday abroad for two
- In 2014 they put the average cost at £680 per person.
- By 2026 an analysis of ONS stats puts the cost at £1,389 for a 9-night getaway.
That’s an eye-watering £709 increase or +104% – more than double the rate of inflation. Dreaming of a sun-drenched beach now costs as much as a small ransom.
2. Enough for Christmas presents twice over
- In 2014 the Treasury said the average Scottish spend on Christmas presents was £610.
- By Christmas 2025 a survey reported by LBC puts the spend at £443.64.
That’s a cash drop of £166 or -27% – an indicator of people are trimming back their Christmas spending.
3. A round-trip on the bus across the Central Belt 127 times
- In 2014 the cost was put at £11 return for a bus journey between Glasgow and Edinburgh.
A bucking of the trend with the cost down by at least £1 or -9%; but whilst these are commercial routes, bus operators are indirectly supported through broad, national transport funding mechanisms by the Scottish Government.
4. Scoffing 280 hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival
- In 2014 the Treasury put the cost at £5 based on the price of food stall food like hot dogs, hamburgers, and curry at the Edinburgh Festival.
- By 2025 the average costs of those items in an Edinburgh Festival Guide comes to £10.84.
A staggering £5.84 leap or +117% – closer to triple inflation than double! Grabbing a quick bite at the Fringe is becoming a minority pursuit.
5. Paying for the family’s footwear for 6 years
- For 2014 the Treasury put the average annual household spend on footwear at £234.
- Twelve years later and the detailed share of Scottish expenditure on ONS clothing and footwear comes out as £130.60.
A drop of over £103 or -44% in cash terms. Families aren’t buying fewer shoes because their feet are shrinking – they are buying less.
6. Filling up the fuel tank for the whole year
- It’s 2014 and the average household spend on petrol or diesel for personal transport in Scotland is £1,123.20.
- It’s now 2026 and headlines are telling us that “UK diesel prices have hit an all-time high“, with diesel at 199.33p a litre and petrol an average of 174.23p.
In 2014 the Office of National Statistics put the price of diesel in 2014 at 125p per litre and petrol at 120p per litre. That’s a 74.33p increase for diesel – or +59% – and a 54.23p increase for petrol – +45%.
Nevertheless the Treasury expresses this item is expressed as household spend and not costs. That presents a picture of people cutting back on what they can afford.
In the 2012-2014 period the average household spend on petrol and diesel was £21.40 per week or £1,112.80 a year.
The latest available statistics for the 2022-2024 period show it is now £17.90 per week or £930.80 a year.
That’s a fall of £182 since 2014 or -16% in what people feel they can afford to spend on car fuel. Not only in real terms but cash terms.
7. Over 630 cappuccinos
- Back in 2014 the cost of a medium cappuccino was £2.20.
- In 2026 the current prices for a medium cappuccino at five of the top providers are: Costa Coffee: £4.80; Starbucks: £4.60; Caffe Nero (Glasgow): £4.40; Pret a Manger (Edinburgh): £4.20; and Greggs: £2.40.
That averages out at £4.08 – an 85% increase. Who needs caffeine when you find out the cost is almost double inflation.
8. Fish suppers every night for the family for 10 weeks
- When the Treasury boasted about the cost of a fish suppers in 2014 they put the cost at £4.74 per portion.
- Now, in 2026 a Seafish industry study puts the cost at £10.29.
That’s an increase of £5.55 or +117%. The traditional family treat is turning into a rarer luxury.
9. A woman’s haircut once a month for over 3 and half years
- In 2014 the average spend for women per haircut was £29.99.
- The latest spend in 2026 is now put at £36.50 on average.
A modest 22% rise – half the rate of inflation – but evidence that spending on unavoidable hair care has fallen in the past twelve years.
10. Paying off your energy bills in full for the year
- In 2014 the household spend on this unavoidable cost was put at £1,211.60.
- Now the latest figure is put at £1,976 annually.
That’s an increase of £764.40 or +63% … and things are set to get worse.
And after all that let us not forget the explicit, rock-solid assurances wheeled out by the ‘No’ campaign during the heat of 2014.
They swore blind that staying with Westminster was the only way to have affordable groceries and low energy bills – key items impacting on the current cost-of-living.
Those promises have evaporated into thin air with families across Scotland being forced to choose between heating their homes and putting food on the table.
This systematic unravelling of Westminster’s grand 2014 promises is not merely a catalogue of grim statistics – it is a profound breach of political trust.
We were told that keeping Westminster would line our pockets with a £1,400 dividend, yet we have been handed an invoice of inflated bills, higher food prices, and shrinking living standards instead.
When a promise made at the ballot box turns out to be as hollow as a cut-price Easter egg, democracy demands a remedy.
This manifest breach of trust by the ‘No’ campaign is reason enough – and then some – for Scotland to take back the steering wheel, chart its own independent course, and hold another referendum to confirm a future that actually works for the people who live in Scotland.