Yellowhammer Papers: what you need to know
The UK government has been forced to release new information on their no deal planning – known as Operation Yellowhammer – after being defeated in the House of Commons by the SNP and other opposition parties shortly before Boris Johnson prorogued Parliament.
Despite being ordered to hand over all information the UK government and its senior advisors had, in relation to a no deal Brexit, the UK government has choosen to release only a single document.
Here’s what you need to know about the consequences of a no deal Brexit.
1) UK government changed its Yellowhammer document to downplay consequences
Despite being told to release all information relating to its no deal planning, the UK government have released only a single document which turns out to have been edited beforehand.
The document released by the UK government said its analysis presented a “worst case scenario” however the almost identical document was seen by the Scottish Government a month earlier called the same analysis of a no deal Brexit a “base scenario”.
This is the Yellowhammer document received by the Scottish Government. No sign of the worst case scenario claimed by the UK government. pic.twitter.com/BDGXfyT217
— Kirsten Campbell (@bbckirstenc) September 12, 2019
2) Medicine & medical supplies will be impacted
Significant distrubtions to the UK’s trade, especially through short Channel Straits, would make medical supply chains particularly vulnerable. Three quarters of UK medicines come through short Channel Straits, putting more pressure on medical facilities needs.
Delays to these supply lines could last up to six months after a no deal Brexit, meaning a number of medicial products will not be able to stockpiled by the UK government due to the length of time.
Medicines and medical products “particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays” in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to government’s Operation Yellowhammer documents. pic.twitter.com/1jA45SjCTS
— Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) September 11, 2019
3) Food prices are set to rise – and UK government admits it will impact most vulnerable the worst
UK government anaylsis suggests that a number of fresh food products will be in shorter supply following a no deal Brexit and that people could be motivated into panic buying exacerbating disruption to the UK’s food supply.
The analysis also suggests this will lead to less choice for consumers, emptier supermarket shelves, and increasing prices – with the most vulnerable in society paying the price for the Tories’ extreme Brexit fantasy.
The government’s Yellowhammer report: “Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease…There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption.” pic.twitter.com/iLv3YmxueG
— Rachel Wearmouth (@REWearmouth) September 11, 2019
4) Energy prices are also likely to face price hikes
The Yellowhammer documents also confirmed that “significant electricity price increases” are expected for both business and domestic consumers in the short-term following a no deal Brexit.
Again, with price increases most likely to affect the most vulnerable in society the most.
The release of leaked Yellowhammer documents confirms fears over energy prices in a no-deal Brexit – read my take from last week here:
UK energy price fears as electricity imports climb to record highhttps://t.co/XXm1qAxuFe
— Jillian Ambrose (@JH_Ambrose) September 11, 2019
5) Lorry delays at ports could last for days
The documents confirmed that disruptions at Channel crossings could last for up to three months before improving and that lorries could face maximum delays of up to two-and-a-half days when attempt to cross with goods.
“Operation Yellowhammer” document marked “official sensitive” is “reasonable worst case scenario.” It talks of lorries having to wait between one and a half and two and half days to cross Channel
— Chris Mason (@ChrisMasonBBC) September 11, 2019
6) Tourists to face delays and increased travel costs
Immigration delays for tourists at the Channel Tunnel, ferry crossings and airports are all expected according to the Yellowhammer documents.
The fall in the value of the pound has also made the cost of European holidays more expensive and, outside of the EU, we may need to pay additional charges for going on holiday too. The UK government has also confirmed that booking accommodation and flights could become more expensive, due to the return of the ‘rip-off’ booking fees.
Here is the “Operation Yellowhammer” document the UK govt was forced to publish outlining “reasonable worst-case scenarios” in case of a no-deal Brexit:
It outlines panic buying, months of disruption at ports & delays in médecine supplies https://t.co/cKV3t2roNR #f24
— Catherine Norris-Trent (@cntrentF24) September 11, 2019
7) The UK government is even expecting illegal fishing in Scottish waters to occur after no deal
Despite the UK government pledging that Brexit would result in full control of Scotland’s fishing waters, the Yellowhammer documents accept that following a no deal Brexit EU & EEA fishing vessels will likely continue to fish in Scotland’s waters – suggesting 100 vessels will continue to be active.
Up to 282 EU and EEA fishing vessels could illegally enter UK waters on Day One causing ‘anger and frustration’ for UK fishing industry and possible “clashes” between boats – paragraph 19 #Yellowhammer document
— David Shukman (@davidshukmanbbc) September 11, 2019
🤔 Considering how disastrous the Yellowhammer documents are for the UK government, you have to be left wondering what the single section was that they chose to redact from the release.
The government’s view on how Brexit might affect our national security is so reassuring that you don’t need to know… #YellowHammer pic.twitter.com/SM8B6JkDnq
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) September 11, 2019