Westminster’s broken promises leave Scotland’s food bills soaring

As warnings grow that another wave of Westminster’s cost-of-living tsunami is about to hit families this autumn and winter it’s maybe time to revisit what the anti-independence politicians promised over a decade ago in the independence referendum.

In 2014, the anti-independence campaign told the people of Scotland that Westminster control was the only way to protect our wallets, secure low grocery bills, and guarantee our place in the European Union.

‘Vote No to keep food prices low‘, was one of their central messages – a promise that buying groceries in the UK would forever shield us from high prices.

Looking back, those claims have aged like a carton of milk left sitting on the beach in Benidorm in July.

The story of post-referendum food prices isn’t a mere accident of economic weather; it is the predictable outcome of Westminster policy choices as a timeline from 2014 shows:

October 2016: Barely two years after the referendum, the first cracks appeared when major food manufacturers warned that the plummeting value of Sterling following the Brexit vote would force food prices sharply upward.

September 2017: Rather than facing the music, reports emerged that the Westminster government was actively suppressing official reports on Brexit’s impact on food prices.

August 2018: The promised savings of Westminster control transformed into a harsh Brexit balls up, with analysts confirming that Scottish households were already forking out hundreds of pounds extra each year.

January 2019: Retail chiefs across the UK took the unprecedented step of warning that a hard Brexit could leave major supermarket shelves bare, warning that chains like Sainsbury’s, Co-op, Lidl, and KFC could run out of food.

July 2019: Price surges started to become the norm as giant retailers like Tesco put up prices on over 1,000 everyday items in a fortnight.

October 2021: Independent commentators and experts flagged that supply chain barriers and red tape were causing structural, permanent damage to UK food supply networks.

June to November 2022: The dam broke entirely. Grocery inflation shattered records month after month. By June, shopper bills reached historic highs, accelerating to the fastest rate on record in November, as food price inflation hit a staggering 12.4%.

December 2022: Research from the London School of Economics (LSE) revealed that Brexit alone had forced UK households to pay an extra £5.8 billion in higher food bills by the end of 2021.

April to May 2023: Everyday staples reached extortionate levels, with consumer groups reporting supermarket basket inflation reaching a eye-watering 17.2%. Follow-up LSE research confirmed that one-third of all UK food price inflation was directly attributable to post-Brexit trade barriers.

April 2024: Border controls introduced by Westminster added another blow, with reports indicating post-Brexit food checks would cost consumers a further £2 billion, compounding the pressure on household living standards highlighted by the IMF.

July to August 2025: Westminster tax increases and rising supply costs continued to push shop bills higher, drawing warnings from the British Retail Consortium and leaving consumers facing relentless price rises on everyday basics like milk and butter.

August 2026: Persistent inflation continues to hammer household budgets, underlining the scale of the ongoing cost-of-living challenge facing working families.

The crowning irony of this decade-long farce is that Scotland is a land of abundance. To claim that Scotland needs Westminster to feed itself is like telling a master brewer they need permission to drink a pint of ale.

According to research into Scotland’s food security by SEFARI, Scotland is more than self-sufficient in major food commodities.

We produce far more red meat, dairy, seed potatoes, and seafood than we could ever consume locally. In fact, data shows that Scotland matches nations like France in the sheer relative value of its food and drink exports.

Just like our renewable energy – where Scottish wind power is sent south while Scottish pensioners freeze under Westminster’s tariff regime – our food wealth is locked behind a Westminster border system.

We produce world-class beef, lamb, salmon and whisky, yet our families are forced to pay premium prices for basic staples because of import tariffs, labour shortages, and trade red tape imposed by Westminster government policies Scotland rejects.

And let us not forget the other core promise of 2014. The anti-independence campaign famously campaigned on the pledge that a ‘No’ vote was the only thing that could keep Scotland in the European Union.

Instead, Scotland was dragged out of the EU against its democratically expressed will. We were yanked out of the largest single market in the world, stripping our agricultural sector of vital European workers and saddling our exporters with crippling bureaucracy.

The 2014 referendum was won on a promise of stability, low prices, and EU membership. What Westminster delivered was historic inflation, trade barriers, and chaos.

When a contractor promises to fix your roof, charges you a fortune, and instead knocks down three walls and lets the rain pour in, you don’t hire them for another ten years – you demand a new contract.

The complete breach of trust by the Westminster obsessed parties is not just an academic argument; it is reflected every week on the supermarket checkout screen in every town across Scotland.

The promises used to deny Scotland its independence have dissolved into thin air.

It is time to put the choice back in the hands of the Scottish people and build an independent nation capable of harvesting the full benefit of its own wealth.