Independence majority in touching distance

The newly published Holyrood voting intentions from the Sunday Times’ YouGov poll published at the weekend show that the SNP has doubled its poll lead over Labour in the Scottish Parliament constituency vote since the previous YouGov poll in April – and puts the parties and MSPs who support Scottish independence within touching distance of an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament: just five seats short. The poll figures are now published on the YouGov website.
 
The poll puts the SNP on 39% of the constituency vote to 26% for Labour – a 13 point lead, up from 7 points in April. The Weber Shandwick seats projector analysis shows that at least 60 MSPs who support independence would be elected on this poll: comprising 52 SNP MSPs, 7 Greens, and the likelihood that Margo MacDonald would be one of the two ‘Other’ MSPs elected.
 
The poll projection shows the SNP winning 52 seats (up five) to Labour’s 36 (down 10). The SNP would win 49 of the 73 constituency seats (up 28), and three list seats. The Tories would fall one seat from 2007 to 16, and the Liberals would also win 16 seats (no change).
 
Commenting on the poll, SNP MSP for Stirling and Minister for Parliamentary Business Mr Bruce Crawford said:
 
"Having won the European election in Scotland and moved ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intentions, this sensational new poll shows a huge SNP lead for the Scottish Parliament.
 
“It demonstrates that the people of Scotland trust the SNP’s record in Government – including our action to support economic recovery, as well as freezing the Council Tax, slashing business rates, phasing in free prescriptions, scrapping bridge tolls, and delivering 1,000 additional police officers.
 
“On the day after the Calman Commission published its report, the significance of these figures is that it would put the pro-independence parties and MSPs within touching distance of achieving an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament – including 52 SNP MSPs and seven Greens.
 
“The Calman parties – Labour, Tory and Lib Dem – are behind the times, as well as being behind the SNP in elections and polls. The opportunities that we have and challenges we face as a nation require full financial powers, so that we can take the big economic decisions Scotland needs to succeed.
 
“That is the positive case the SNP wish to take to the people in the referendum we propose for 2010 – so that people have the opportunity to choose independence and equality for Scotland.”
 
ENDS
 
Notes:
 
1. The polls details for a Scottish Parliament election are:
 
Constituency Vote
 
             % Vote  % Change
SNP       39%      +6%
Lab        26%      -6%
Tory       14%      -3%
Lib         14%      -2%
Oth        7%       +5%
 
Regional Vote
 
             % Vote  % Change
SNP       34%     +3%
Lab        26%     -3%
Tory       14%     0%
Lib         13%     2%
Gre        7%       3%
Oth        6%      -5%
 
2. Analysis by Weber Shandwick’s predictor would give the following result:

             Total     Change Con.     Reg.
SNP       52         +5        49        3
Lab        36         -10       15        21
Tory       16         -1         3          13
Lib         16         -           6          10
Gre        7          +5         0          7
Oth        2          +1         0          2
 
3. The SNP would gain 28 seats on this poll’s findings. They would be:
 
From Labour:
 
Aberdeen Central
Airdrie & Shotts
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley
Glasgow Cathcart
Clydebank & Milngavie
Clydesdale
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth
Cunninghame South
Dumbarton
East Kilbride
East Lothian
Edinburgh Central
Edinburgh North & Leith
Falkirk East
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale
Greenock & Inverclyde
Glasgow Kelvin
Kirkcaldy
Linlithgow
Glasgow Maryhill
Midlothian
Renfrewshire West
Strathkelvin & Bearsden
 
From LibDems:
 
Aberdeen South
Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross
Dunfermline West
Ross, Skye & Inverness West
Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale
 
Source
 
4. Comparison with the previous Scottish Parliamentary constituency poll (both YouGov):
 
             APRIL  JUNE
SNP       37%      39%
Lab        30%      26%
Tory       15%      14%
Lib         13%      14%
Oth        5%       7%
 
Lead      +7%     +13%