Labour poll lead crumbles in Glasgow East

A shock poll in Glasgow East has seen a 15 per cent swing from Labour to the SNP in the first week of the by-election campaign.

The ICM poll conducted on Thursday and Friday has found support for Labour at 47 per cent, the SNP on 33 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on eight per cent and the Conservatives on seven.

At the last General Election, Labour had 61 per cent, the SNP 17 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent and the Conservatives seven.

The findings have been hailed by SNP leader Alex Salmond as "sensational".

The loss of the rock-solid Labour seat would be a disaster for Gordon Brown.

Mr Salmond said: “This is fantastic news for the SNP as we campaign to win the Glasgow East by-election and backs up the tremendous response to the SNP on doorsteps across this constituency.

"After one week of the campaign the SNP is two thirds of the way to a sensational by-election win.

“This result will give real momentum to the SNP campaign and shows us on track to overturn one of Labour’s safest seats and deliver a real victory for people in Glasgow East.

“20 years ago an opinion poll published three days before the Govan by-election put the SNP 20 % behind. With 10 days to go the SNP are closing the gap in Glasgow East and are on course for the political earthquake that will send shockwaves around Westminster.”

SNP candidate Cllr John Mason added:

“We have the people and the momentum to win this by-election. The SNP will continue to work hard today and every day to show we are on the side of people in Glasgow East.

“Voters in Glasgow East understand that it is only a vote for the SNP on 24th July that will send a message to Westminster and bring real change in the failing policies of this Labour government.”

ICM Research interviewed 516 adults across Glasgow East by telephone on July 10 and 11 (change from 2005 General election).

• Labour 47% (-14%)
• SNP 33% (+16%)
• Lib 9% (-3%)
• Con 7% (-%)

The figures show a swing of 15% already from the 2005 Westminster election where Labour polled 61% to the SNP’s 17%.

In the Govan by-election of 1988 the final opinion poll published 3 days before poll by System 3/Herald-STV showed Labour 20% ahead of the SNP.

The SNP won the Govan by-election with a 12% lead.

• System 3/Herald-STV
  Reported 7th/8th November 1988
  Labour - 52.9%
  SNP - 33.4%