SNP's 9-point lead over Labour, poll of polls

A new opinion poll analysis for all UK polls in May with a Scottish sample shows that the SNP has built up a 9 point lead over Labour for the Westminster general election. They provide a combined Scottish sample size of 728, which is close to the size of a standard poll.

The study - based on the five UK opinion polls conducted in May which have Scottish samples - gives the following ratings (change from 2005 election in brackets):

SNP: 35% (+17%)
Lab: 26% (-14%)
Tory: 20% (+4%)
LibDem: 14% (-9%)
Other: 5% (1%)

Applying the figures to the Electoral Calculus projection shows the SNP winning 33 seats in Scotland, compared to Labour's 14, 7 for the LibDems, and 5 for the Tories.

Commenting on the analysis, SNP Business Convener and Westminster Leader Angus Robertson said:

"The Scottish samples of UK polls are consistently showing the SNP ahead, and the aggregate figures for all five polls conducted in May indicate that the SNP have a sensational 9 point lead over Labour for a Westminster election. The SNP's lead over Labour is growing poll by poll.

"Each sample may be small but taken together they show a growing body of evidence that we are witnessing a tale of two governments - the SNP under Alex Salmond is demonstrating competence, credibility and success, while Gordon Brown's government dithers its way from crisis to crisis.

"We are also seeing a tale of two countries as it is the SNP which is making the major advance in Scotland whilst David Cameron's Conservatives are trailing behind Labour.

"The SNP's delivery in government and the measures we are taking to improve people's lives, to deliver local healthcare, to freeze council tax and to reduce business rates are resonating with people across Scotland.

"As Labour presides over rising fuel prices and leaves 100,000 Scots out of pocket from the abolition of the 10 pence tax and botched compensation scheme, it is clear that Labour's dominance of Scottish politics is over, even at Westminster level.

"The SNP's target of 20 seats at Westminster is well within our grasp as this analysis shows. People across Scotland want to see MPs working for Scotland, not acting as lobby fodder for Gordon Brown.

"With a block of 20 or more SNP MPs, Westminster really would be dancing to a Scottish jig - and we would secure real progress on vital Scottish interests such as attendance allowance, council tax benefit, North Sea revenues, and our fair share of Barnett resources."