Labour u-turn on Independence referendum
SNP depute leader Nicola Sturgeon has branded Labour's new-found support for an Independence referendum a "panic reaction by a party that's plummeting at the polls".
Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland she said: "If Wendy Alexander really does now support an independence referendum clearly I and the SNP welcome her very warmly indeed.
"But we have to inject a note of caution here, Wendy Alexander's behaviour is erratic in the extreme. It's only a few weeks ago she said she was implacably opposed to a referendum, she's just set up a constitutional commission that expressly excludes the option of Independence.
"So who knows what her position will be this time next week, let alone in six months time."
Ms Sturgeon said the SNP had set out its plans to hold an Independence referendum in 2010 during the election campaign last year, after first building a reputation in government.
She stated: "That's the course we set in our manifesto, the manifesto we were elected on and it's the course we intend to stick to.
"Just because Wendy Alexander is under pressure, and just because Gordon Brown led Labour to its worst defeat in 40 years last week, doesn't mean that the erratic behaviour on their part should dictate the course of events in Scotland."
The SNP manifesto last year set out the party's plans to offer Scots the opportunity to decide on Independence in a referendum, with a likely date of 2010.
What do you think of Labour's new-found support for a referendum on Independence?
Tell us what you think...
For or Against?
As recently as the Labour Party Conference in Aviemore in March, during a BBC interview she voiced her opposition to a referendum on independence:
"It's not my politics."
"Those who want it should argue for it."
"Because I don't believe in independence, it's as simple as that."
Referendum
It's just Yes or No stupid!
Since the advent of Devolution in 1998, over 20 polls now have asked the simple Yes/No question i.e. 'independence' (no EU conditions, no negotiating with Westminster) versus the status quo.
These have averaged a predicted Yes vote in a referendum of about 54%.
These results have been very effectively 'buried' in the past - for obvious reasons, although the more recent ones have been harder to ignore, not least because a couple of them have been SNP sponsored.
As a member of Independence First until the past year, we tried to publicise these poll results as best we could, and I think we at least managed to do so fairly effectively amongst the politicised community in Scotland.
However, I really believe that the Yes vote in a simple independence v status quo referendum will be much higher than this.
Why?
Because the psychologies involved in answering a pollster and in voting in a referendum are quite different.
We know that there is a large swathe of folk out there who would like to see Scotland attain normal levels of self-government, but would also like to see a period of full fiscal autonomy first, just in case there is some truth to the Unionist fiscal scaremongering.
A goodly proportion of these folk, when asked by a pollster, are likely to say no to independence because their expectation is that fiscal autonomy will come along anyway and then they can decide.
However, in the case of a status quo v independence referendum, this changes in several ways.
First, there is the realisation that if they vote no, there will then be no evolution to fiscal autonomy/independence.
Second, that, unlike polls, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Third, this establishes the thought that if they vote no there will be no change for the rest of their lives. People are always, when it comes to push or shove, more enthused by potential change than no change.
Fourth, they also figure that if they vote No there will be no possibility of changing things even if the Union gets worse, whereas a vote Yes, and things don't work out then we could probably rejoin the UK again quite easily.
This kind of difference between polls and actual referendum results was evident in '97, where polls predicted that the Yes/Yes option had no chance and the Yes/No option was 'touch and go'. In reality of course both were >70%.
If there is a simple independence(no strings attached) versus status quo referendum, then I am sure we will have a resounding victory on the day.
However, I would guess that the Unionists are likely to dump the status quo and propose a 'more powers' option which changes things in ways we should be aware of for strategical reasons. See the 'And now the bad news' post.
chicmac
Don't vote for dependency because of your parents
Vote Independence because of your children.
And now the bad news.
As said in the last post the Us will drop the status quo and opt for the more powers v independence option.
As already stated, when push comes to shove, history and other evidence shows that most of that large swathe of the electorate who would quite like to see an independent Scotland but would like to see a cautious/evolutionary approach, will plump for Yes in a referendum whereas they are more likely to say no in a poll or indeed an election.
The main reason being that the referendum is seen as a once in a lifetime only chance to change things whereas a poll or election - well there will be another one along before too long.
They also reason that a NO decision would scupper any more evolution in the full fiscal autonomy/independence direction for the foreseeable future, whereas a YES decision would be easier to reverse.
However, the switch from status quo v independence to 'more powers' v independence threatens this scenario in several ways.
First, it looks (to the cautious swathe) like the stepwise strategy they want.
Second it implies that the evolution is still on.
Us will up this by claiming that independence is a one-way street, best try more powers first. A powerful argument from the 'swathe' perspective.
Of course, they have no intention of ever having a second referendum and will only ever point to a rejection of independence in the forthcoming one whenever the matter is raised.
We need to be ready for this, and it may take some radical thinking.
But all is not lost, we should be able to turn this into at least a WIN win situation.
In the ensuing campaign we need to reverse the argument.
We need to both expose the Us refusal of future change while at the same time reassuring potential independence supporters that independence is not a one-way-street.
For example, if we proposed a post-independence review and ratifying referendum at the 5 year? point, this would enable us to negate the independence = one-way-street argument which in turn would allow us to attack the Us for ending further evolution without comeback. I think this would swing things back in our favour.
If the Us countered by, say announcing their own future review strategy, then this is where the wee win option comes in, because then even if we lose this time, we still have agreed licence to push for a further referendum.
Anyway, as long as we concentrate on the psychology of the majority who want independence but need assurances of various kinds, then I think we will do it.
chicmac
Don't vote for dependency because of your parents
Vote Independence because of your children.
Wendy Alexander
We need to know more about Wendy's U-turn. Does Gordon Brown support it? It would appear not. If I understand the constitution correctly, he can trigger such a referendum. If, as Wendy says, Gordon Brown fully supports her stance then why isn't he doing that. Clearly he does not support her stance. Why then has she chosen to do it? What does this tell us about the unity, or not, of the Labour Party? As a Labour supporter (although no longer) I am depressed at the chaos the party, north and south of the border, has decended into. I genuinely believe that Wendy Alexander is not in touch with reality. She cannot communicate whatever it is she believes in; this is a disaster for a politician. It is also a disaster for those of us who, until this moment, supported Labour.
The SNP have been impressive in Government. I think there is a large latent support for the SNP in traditional Labour ranks, providing the SNP remains a left of centre Party. Now that the SNP are in power, and proving themselves to be capable, much of this support ought to gravitate towards them.
The contrast between the competent SNP administration and the incoherent Labour opposition is remarkable and it is noticed by the many.
Martyn
What Wendy said before the u-turn
Wendy Alexander – interviewed on Politics Now, March 20th 2008:
http://www.stv.tv/content/news/Politics_new/
Michael Crow: If there was a referendum on independence tomorrow do you think you could win it?
Wendy Alexander: Yes! There is no evidence that there is any rise in support for independence. Scotland wants the chance to be…proud! They don't want to have prejudice against England.
Michael Crow: Okay, now, so why don't you try and shoot the SNP fox and why don't you have a referendum if you are so confident of winning it?
Wendy Alexander: That's their policy. The only thing that interests the rest of us is why they are so scared to bring it forward because they know they are going to lose.
Michael Crow: Would you hold a referendum? Would you rule out a referendum, sorry, before the end of this Parliament?
Wendy Alexander: No our politics isn't constitutional. I'm in politics...
Michael Crow: I'm interested to know if you would rule out an independence referendum
Wendy Alexander: Yeah we said that's not our politics. We're interested in social and economic change. Making people's lives better. The issues we were raising this week. Why are we killing off nursery places for vulnerable two years olds? Why are disabled children uniquely in Scotland not getting respite care? Why are we having no more modern apprenticeships...?
Michael Crow: All I'm asking...
Wendy Alexander: ...issues that Scotland cares about...
Michael Crow: Will you vote definitely against a referendum bill?
Wendy Alexander: Well we're said we don't think there's a place for it. It's not our politics. And frankly the interesting thing is the SNP seems scared to advance is the reason they came into politics.
Michael Crow: But if they did you would vote against it?
Wendy Alexander: Yes.