Labour or Tory 2015 win gives Yes clear poll lead

The Scottish National Party published further results of the poll commissioned by the party and conducted by Panelbase.

The Panelbase poll remains the most recent poll in terms of its sampling dates: 23-28 August, among 1,043 people aged 18 and over in Scotland.

Panelbase was the first polling organisation to show the SNP in the lead during the 2011 Holyrood election campaign.

While the headline figures already published put support for Yes in the independence referendum a point ahead of No - at 44 per cent to 43 per cent – this advantage becomes more substantial when people are asked if they are likely or unlikely to vote for independence under the scenarios of a Conservative-led, Conservative/Lib Dem coalition, or a Labour-led government at Westminster.

Panelbase asked:

* If you felt the 2015 UK general election was going to result in a Conservative-led government, or another Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition at Westminster, would you be:

Very likely to vote for Scottish independence: 41%
Quite likely to vote for Scottish independence: 9%
TOTAL LIKELY: 50%
Quite unlikely to vote for Scottish independence: 10%
Very unlikely to vote for Scottish independence: 31%
TOTAL UNLIKELY: 41%
Don’t know: 8%

* If you felt the 2015 UK general election was going to result in a Labour-led government at Westminster, would you be:

Very likely to vote for Scottish independence: 37%
Quite likely to vote for Scottish independence: 10%
TOTAL LIKELY: 47%
Quite unlikely to vote for Scottish independence: 10%
Very unlikely to vote for Scottish independence: 32%
TOTAL UNLIKELY: 42%
Don’t know: 11%

SNP Depute Leader and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“These are extremely positive findings, showing Yes ahead under the scenarios of both Tory and Labour governments at Westminster – they reinforce the other key result that people trust the Scottish Government rather than Westminster to take decisions for Scotland by a margin of nearly four-to-one. These conclusions all underline the strength and potential of the Yes vote.

“Polls will move up and down between now and next September as the debate over Scotland’s future gathers pace - but what these very encouraging figures underline is that Yes can win and I believe will win next September.”

The Panelbase poll also asked:

* There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? (Change from July 2013 Panelbase/Sunday Times poll in brackets):
Yes: 44% (+7)
No: 43% (-3)
Don't Know: 13% (-4)

* Who do you trust to take the best decisions for Scotland: the Scottish Government or the Westminster Government?
The Scottish Government: 60%
The Westminster Government: 16%
Neither: 19%
Don't Know: 5%

* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: 'Scotland could be a successful independent country'.
Yes, I agree: 52%
No, I disagree: 37%
Don't Know: 11%

Consistent Panelbase methodology is to report independence referendum voting intentions on the basis of those in the categories (8-10) who are most likely and certain to vote in the referendum - a base of 908 - and the other findings above are also from this base.

Panelbase is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.