Poll shock for Labour as Lamont would lose seat

Johann Lamont’s struggling leadership has been laid bare in the latest poll, which shows that on these figures even she would lose her seat at the next Holyrood election

The Sunday Times/Panelbase poll puts the SNP a full 18 points ahead of Labour in the constituency vote, and 23 points ahead in the regional vote. Translated into seats, this means the SNP would return in 2016 with 71 seats – two more than in the 2011 landslide win - with Labour down four on just 33 seats.

Detailed analysis of the poll shows that Ms Lamont, former leader Iain Gray, and senior backbencher Duncan McNeil would all lose their seats to the SNP.

The scale of the SNP’s lead is such that it now has more support than the three ‘No’ parties combined.

Johann Lamont’s leadership has been called into question on a number of occasions. Her controversial Cuts Commission speech has alienated many Labour supporters, and more recently she has been silent on Labour’s selection crisis in Falkirk.

Commenting on the latest poll, SNP MSP Sandra White said:

“This poll is a remarkable vote of confidence in the SNP – with an extraordinary 18-point poll lead more than six years into office - but it also puts the spotlight on Johann Lamont’s failure to make any positive impact as Labour leader.

"The SNP have even more support in this poll than our 2011 Holyrood victory, and Labour has gone even further backwards - to the extent that Johann Lamont would lose her own Pollok seat to the SNP, and former leader Iain Gray would lose his East Lothian seat.

“Ms Lamont was supposed to be the first leader of all of Labour in Scotland - including their MPs at Westminster - but she has been invisible during the crisis engulfing Labour in Falkirk, making it clear that Scottish Labour is still very much London-led.

“But it’s not just the Falkirk situation about which Ms Lamont has been silent – across a range of issues, from Trident to tuition fees, Ms Lamont seems unwilling or unable to tell anyone what she really thinks.

“And of course, her decision to align Labour with the Tories in the anti-independence campaign is proving to be as toxic for Labour as it has been for the Lib Dems at Westminster.

“While the SNP continue to deliver after over six years in Government – with the lowest crime in decades, 1,000 additional police officers, one of the lowest youth unemployment rates in the EU, better employment figures than the UK as a whole, free travel for the over-60s, and no tuition fees for young Scots - Johann Lamont’s lack of ambition for Scotland is becoming increasingly unsustainable for Labour.”

Poll details
Sunday Times / Real Radio Scotland : Panelbase poll (1,001 sample)
Conducted 17-24 July

Constituency (change on 2011 result)

SNP 48% ( +3 )
Lab 30% ( -2 )
Con 13% ( -1 )
Lib D 4% ( -4 )
Other 5% (+3)

Regional (change on 2011 result)

SNP 48% (+4)
Lab 25% (- 1)
Con 13% ( 0)
Green 6% (+2)
Lib D 4% ( -1)
Other 4% (-2)

Electoral analysis conducted on www.scotlandvotes.com shows that the SNP would gain the following constituencies on this result:

Glasgow Pollok (SNP gain from Johann Lamont - Lab)
East Lothian (SNP gain from Iain Gray - Lab)
Greenock & Inverclyde (SNP gain from Duncan McNeil - Lab)
Motherwell & Wishaw (SNP gain from John Pentland - Lab)
Uddingston and Bellshill (SNP gain from Michael McMahon - Lab)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith (SNP gain from Malcolm Chisholm - Lab)
Cowdenbeath (SNP gain from Helen Eadie - Lab)
Ayr (SNP gain from John Scott - Con)
Galloway & West Dumfries (SNP gain from Alex Fergusson - Con)

This would give each party the following number of MSPs:

SNP – 71 MSPs (+2)
Lab – 33 MSPs (-4)
Con – 16 MSPs (+1)
LD – 3 MSPs (-2)
Green – 5 MSPs (+3)
Ind – 1 MSP (0)