SNP top Westminster poll of polls
An analysis of opinion polls in Scotland for 2008 shows the SNP leading across the year with the party ahead of Labour for Westminster for the first time in its history.
According to a poll of polls for Westminster in 2008 – combining Scotland only polls and the breakdowns for UK polls - the SNP is on an average 33.5% to 32.5% for Labour. This equals a swing of 11% to the SNP from Labour since the 2005 election. In total the number of people sampled is an impressive 18,632.
In comparison an analysis of similar Westminster polls and polling breakdowns for 2007 – the year the SNP ended Labour's 50 year dominance in Scotland –shows that Labour's average was still ahead of the SNP by over 4%.
Averages for System 3 Westminster polls in Scotland between 1974 and 2003 also show that the SNP never overtook Labour in that period.
Commenting on the analysis the Depute Leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon MSP, said:
"This analysis is great news for the SNP and clearly indicates that Scottish politics has changed for good. It shows the historic sea change in Scottish politics with the SNP, for the first time in its history, overtaking Labour in polling averages for Westminster.
"That we have overtaken Labour in Westminster polling from our high point in 2007 is immensely significant for the SNP. The swing from Labour has increased in 2008 reflecting our success in by-elections.
"It shows that the advantage is with the SNP and we are on track to seriously challenge Labour in a two horse race for the Westminster elections. It reflects how the SNP in Government is delivering for the people of Scotland.
"In Government in Scotland it is the SNP which is doing everything it can within its power to deliver a six-point plan to help families and business in these troubled economic times.
"We've put more money back in people's pockets with a council tax freeze and lowering prescription charges; and we've put more money back into high street businesses with our small business bonus.
"Labour's age of irresponsibility is over and it is the SNP which is offering the people of Scotland a better future with an age of responsibility. The choice is clearly between the SNP offering a positive vision of responsibility compared to a Labour party obsessed with negativity and irresponsibility."
1. The monthly Poll of Polls for each month in 2008 for Westminster voting intention revealed:
Party: % - 2005 (Change)
SNP: 33.50% - 17.70% (15.80%)
Labour: 32.50% - 39.50% (-7.00%)
Tory: 17.80% - 15.80% (2.00%)
LibDem: 12.00% - 22.60% (-10.70%)
Other: 4.40% - 4.30% (0.10%)
SNP Lead: 1% - -21.90%
In total 18,632 people were polled.
This poll of poll constitutes 9 Scotland only polls and 59 from the Scottish breakdowns for UK polls.
In contrast the monthly Poll of Polls for each month in 2007 for Westminster voting intention revealed:
Party: % - 2005 (Change)
SNP: 30.60% - 17.70% (12.90%)
Labour: 34.80% - 39.50% (-4.70%)
Tory: 16.50% - 15.80% (0.70%)
LibDem: 11.60% - 22.60% (-11.10%)
Other: 6.70% - 4.30% (2.40%)
Labour Lead: 4.20% - 21.90%
In total 8,277 people were polled. This poll of poll constitutes 3 Scotland only polls and 39 from the Scottish breakdowns for UK polls.
2. The yearly averages of System 3 opinion polls between 1974 and 2003 are available here.